Asymmetric Air Power: How Iran’s Shahed-136 (Geran-2) Weaponized the Cost-Exchange Ratio

The HESA Shahed-136 is a prominent example of modern loitering munition (LM) designed to execute One-Way Attack (OWA) missions. Its global significance is derived not from superior avionics, but from its fundamental technical and economic design, which facilitates an asymmetric warfare doctrine focused on overwhelming air defences through volume.

1. Core Technical Specifications and Design

Component	Metric	Technical Specification (Shahed-136 / Geran-2)
Type	Classification	Loitering Munition (OWA)
Dimensions	Length / Wingspan	3.5 m/2.5 m
Mass	Maximum Take-off Weight (MTOW)	≈200 kg
Powerplant	Engine Type	Piston Engine (MD-550), driving a pusher-propeller.
Performance	Maximum Speed	≈185 km/h(115 mph)
Range	Operational Range	≈1,000 to 2,500 km (dependent on payload)
Payload	Warhead Mass	30−50 kg High-Explosive. Russian variants upgraded to carry up to 90 kg (e.g., thermobaric/tungsten shrapnel).
Guidance	System	GNSS (GPS/GLONASS) and Inertial Navigation System (INS). Later Russian modifications include multi-antenna CRPA (Controlled Reception Pattern Antennas) for enhanced anti-jamming.
Launch	Platform	Rocket-Assisted Take-Off (RATO) from a mobile ground rack.

Shahed-136 LM made by Iran

2. Russia's Acquisition and Cost

Russia (which designates the drone as Geran-2) initially acquired fully built units and later signed a large-scale licensing and technology transfer agreement to establish domestic production.

Cost Metric	Price (Estimated)	Technical Rationale
Initial Export Price (Iran)	≈$193,000 per unit	This figure includes the cost of technology transfer, licensing, training, and the premium associated with a time-sensitive, sanctions-dodging supply chain.
Domestic Production Cost (Russia)	≈$30,000−$80,000 per unit	Once localized production at facilities like the Alabuga Special Economic Zone scales up, the cost drops significantly, reflecting the true cost of COTS components and bulk manufacturing.
Acquisition Total	The full franchise deal, including transfer of technology and the provision of ≈6,000 initial units, was reported to be around $1.75 billion.

Reports indicate that payment from Russia to Iran for the drones has involved transfers of gold bars (e.g., 1.8 tons of gold bars worth over $100 million), a tactic used to circumvent traditional banking systems and international sanctions.

3. Impact on the Ukraine-Russia War

The Geran-2 drone has fundamentally altered Russia's long-range strike strategy in Ukraine, shifting the focus from high-cost, limited-stock missiles to an economic war of attrition.

A. Strategic Deployment and Tactics

1. Attrition and Air Defense Saturation: The core strategy involves launching massed drone swarms (often hundreds of units per attack) in conjunction with conventional cruise or ballistic missiles. The Shaheds act as a sacrificial force, designed to deplete Ukraine's limited and expensive missile stocks (S-300, NASAMS, Patriot) and force air defense operators to reveal their positions.

   
   

2. Targeting Critical Infrastructure: Russia's campaign focuses heavily on Ukraine's energy grid, airfields, and command centers. The long range of the Geran-2 allows strikes deep into Ukrainian territory, maintaining constant pressure on civilian morale and military logistics.

   
   

3. Technical Evolution in Theater: Battlefield experience has led to rapid technical iteration:

   • Anti-Jamming: Newer Geran-2s incorporate advanced anti-jamming modules.

   • Decoys: Russia has introduced low-cost decoy drones (like the Gerbera) with similar radar signatures to complicate Ukrainian air defense detection and targeting systems.

   • Advanced Targeting: Recent variants have been observed with night vision cameras, cellular modems, and Nvidia Jetson minicomputers for video processing and enhanced autonomy. This capability signals a shift from striking static, pre-programmed targets to potentially engaging moving targets (e.g., trains) or autonomously searching for targets of opportunity.

B. The Unfavorable Cost-Exchange Ratio

The defining impact of the Shahed is financial. A single Geran-2 costs Russia approximately $50,000, while a single NASAMS interceptor missile fired by Ukraine to shoot it down costs roughly $500,000 to $1 million. Even with a high interception rate (often over 80%), the continuous deployment of Shaheds forces Ukraine and its Western backers into an unsustainable cost-exchange ratio, draining valuable and hard-to-replace air defense munitions.

The impact is therefore twofold: the kinetic damage caused by the 10-20% of drones that penetrate defenses, and the economic attrition inflicted by forcing the constant expenditure of high-value defensive assets.